5 Lessons From Hong Kong's Property Godfather, Checked Against 2026 Data

Shih Wing-ching, who founded Hong Kong’s Centaline Property Agency in 1978, is often called the godfather of that city’s property market. In 2018 he was reported as saying that property is cyclical, that you should diversify, and that housing should serve local people. Hong Kong’s own data since then back all three. Prices rose 265% from 2009 to 2021, then fell 28% to March 2025. Here are five lessons, with the numbers.

At a glance

• Hong Kong’s private home price index fell 66.2% from October 1997 to July 2003, and took until February 2011 to regain its old peak, 13 years and 4 months after it.
• It then rose 264.6% from March 2009 to September 2021, fell 28.4% to March 2025, and was up 12.5% from that low in August 2026 (provisional).
• Small flats swung more: flats under 40 square metres fell 31.3% from their 2021 peak, against about 24% for flats of 70 square metres or more.
• In Singapore, ABSD and the four-year Seller’s Stamp Duty period make rebalancing a property portfolio far more costly than rebalancing shares.

What we checked, and what we could not

Shih was born in Shanghai in 1949, founded Centaline in 1978 and also publishes the free newspaper AM730, according to Wikipedia. The views attributed to him below come from a 2018 report of a television interview. We have not been able to re-check that interview, so treat them as ideas to test and not as quotations. The market data come from official sources: Hong Kong’s Rating and Valuation Department and Singapore’s URA.

The Hong Kong index is for private domestic flats on the secondary market (new-home sales are excluded), with 1999 equal to 100.

Lesson 1: Property runs in cycles, and the swings are large

Shih’s first lesson, as reported, was that the industry is cyclical and you must be able to stomach volatility. Hong Kong’s index shows how big the swings can be:

Date	Index (1999 = 100)	Move
October 1997	172.9	Peak before the Asian financial crisis
July 2003	58.4	−66.2% from the peak
March 2009	109.2	Start of the next boom
February 2011	176.4	First month above the 1997 peak
September 2021	398.1	+264.6% from March 2009
March 2025	284.9	−28.4% from the 2021 peak
August 2026 (provisional)	320.5	+12.5% from March 2025

Singapore’s swings have been smaller but real. The URA index fell 44.9% from Q2 1996 to Q4 1998 and 11.6% from Q3 2013 to Q2 2017. Our guide on whether prices always go up lists every major fall.

Lesson 2: Staying power matters more than timing

A buyer at Hong Kong’s 1997 peak waited 160 months, more than 13 years, to see the price again. A Singapore buyer at the 1996 peak waited 14 years. Few people can keep paying a mortgage through that.

Here is a stress test, not a forecast. Say you buy a S$1.5m home with a 75% loan, so your equity is S$375,000. If prices then fell by Hong Kong’s 66.2%, you would lose S$993,000, which is 2.6 times your equity. At Singapore’s 44.9% fall you would lose S$673,500, or 1.8 times your equity. Both would leave you owing the bank more than the home is worth, with no way out unless you can pay the difference. The lesson is to size your loan for the worst year. Test your own numbers at a 4% rate in the mortgage calculator.

Lesson 3: Diversify so no one asset forces a sale

Asked how to stay intact through market swings, Shih reportedly said diversification is key. He was reported to follow a 4-3-2-1 split: 40% in property, 30% in shares, 20% in bonds and 10% in gold, selling what has risen a lot to cover what has fallen. We could not re-check this rule, and it is one investor’s habit, not advice.

For a Singapore homeowner the useful question is how much of your wealth is in the home. Say your net worth is S$2m and S$1.4m of it is home equity, which is 70%. A 40% weight would mean S$800,000 in property. That is only a thought experiment, since your home is also where you live, and CPF savings complicate the picture. But rebalancing property is expensive here. Seller’s Stamp Duty is 16%, 12%, 8% or 4% if you sell within four years of buying, and Buyer’s Stamp Duty and ABSD apply on each purchase. Shares cost far less to trade. See our stocks versus property comparison.

Lesson 4: Housing should serve the people who live there

Shih reportedly argued against selling properties from one country to buyers in another, saying property exists to meet local housing needs. The evidence from next door in Johor supports his caution. The Forest City project was planned for 700,000 people and aimed at wealthy buyers from China, and Foreign Policy reported in 2019 that it was still mostly empty. We look at that risk in when hotspots become ghost towns. Foreign buyers in Singapore face 60% ABSD, and cannot buy HDB flats, which shows a similar priority for local housing. If an agent pitches you a foreign project, read our overseas property guide first.

Lesson 5: In a downturn, the small and marginal units fall furthest

Shih reportedly said that a good project always finds a buyer. Hong Kong’s data by flat size show the other side of that: weaker units suffer more.

Flat size	Peak to trough	Peak	Trough
Under 40 m²	−31.3%	Sep 2021	Feb 2025
40 to 69.9 m²	−28.0%	Jul 2021	Mar 2025
70 to 99.9 m²	−23.6%	May 2019	Mar 2025
100 to 159.9 m²	−23.6%	Oct 2021	Mar 2025
160 m² or more	−23.8%	Jul 2018	Mar 2025

Source: Rating and Valuation Department, Hong Kong (Propwise calculations). Each size class is measured from its own peak after 2015.

The smallest flats fell furthest. It is a sample from one city and one cycle, so it does not prove the same in Singapore. But it matches the caution in our guide to shoebox units.

Bottom line

Hong Kong’s index fell 66% in one cycle and rose 265% in the next, and both took years. The practical lessons are old ones: size your loan for the bad years, do not let one asset be your whole wealth, buy where local people can afford to live, and be most careful with the smallest, most speculative units. Shih Wing-ching’s career is a reminder that the market is cyclical. Your task is to still be there for the next cycle.

Sources

• Property market statistics: private domestic price indices by class (from 1979) — Rating and Valuation Department, Hong Kong (data to August 2026, provisional from June 2026; Propwise calculations)
• Shih Wing-ching — Wikipedia (secondary source for biography, checked Oct 2026)
• Private Residential Property Price Index (2009-Q1 = 100), Quarterly — URA via data.gov.sg (checked Oct 2026)
• Seller’s Stamp Duty (SSD) for residential property — IRAS, purchases from 4 Jul 2025 (checked Oct 2026)
• Buyer’s Stamp Duty (BSD) — IRAS, rates effective 15 Feb 2023 (checked Oct 2026)
• Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) — IRAS, rates effective 27 Apr 2023 (checked Oct 2026)
• Report on the Forest City development in Johor — Foreign Policy, 21 Nov 2019