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Singapore Property Market Outlook for Q4 2026 and 2027: Prices, Supply, Rates and Risks

Where Singapore property heads into 2027: private prices at a record, HDB resale dipping, record land supply, SORA near 1.2%, and the risks to watch.

By Propwise EditorialUpdated 2 October 202611 min read

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How we made this. Updated for 2026 with AI-assisted research. Figures are linked to their sources — check them before you act.

Singapore’s private home prices are still rising, but slowly, while HDB resale prices have now slipped for three quarters in a row. With mortgage packages at about 1.5–2.2%, the biggest land-sales programme in years and a US rate hike in September, Propwise expects a flat-to-modestly-higher private market in 2027 and a broadly flat HDB resale market: neither a boom nor a crash.

At a glance

  • Private prices rose 1.4% in Q3 2026 (flash) and about 3.4% over the past year. The URA index is at a record high, but sales volumes are down about 20% on 2025.
  • HDB resale prices fell 0.2% in Q3 2026, the third straight quarterly dip. They are about 0.6% below the Q3 2025 peak.
  • Supply is the swing factor: 9,320 private units on the 2026 Government Land Sales (GLS) Confirmed List, about 60,600 private units in the pipeline, and about 19,600 BTO flats this year.
  • Rates are low but the warning light is on: 3-month compounded SORA is about 1.23%, but banks raised home-loan packages after the US Federal Reserve’s September 2026 hike (floating about 1.5–1.8%, fixed about 2.0–2.2%), and Singapore inflation is rising.
  • Propwise’s view for 2027: private prices +1% to +4%, HDB resale −2% to +1%. The main risks are a rate shock, a global downturn and a supply overhang.

Where the market stands in October 2026

IndicatorLatest readingChange
URA private price index (Q3 2026 flash)about 222.5, a record+1.4% q/q, about +3.4% y/y
Landed homes+2.8% q/q
Non-landed: CCR / RCR / OCR−0.1% / +0.2% / +2.2% q/q
Private sales, Jan to mid-Sep 202615,857 unitsabout −20% y/y
HDB resale price index (Q3 2026 flash)202.4−0.2% q/q, about −0.6% y/y
HDB resale transactions, Q3 20267,528 (to 29 Sep)+5.2% y/y
HDB resales at S$1m or more, Q3 2026596480 a year earlier
Private vacancy rate (Q2 2026)6.4%up from 6.2% in Q1
3-month compounded SORA (1 Oct 2026)about 1.23%down from a peak of about 3.7–3.8% in late 2023
Bank home-loan packages (late Sep to early Oct 2026)floating about 1.5–1.8%, fixed about 2.0–2.2%up after the 16 Sep US rate hike

Sources: URA Q3 2026 flash, URA Q2 2026 statistics, URA price index series, HDB resale price index, HDB resale transactions, AsiaOne, 1 Oct 2026, SORA (MAS data via HousingLoanSG); package rates as reported by The Business Times (2 Oct 2026) and CNA (18 Sep 2026). The index level and year-on-year changes are Propwise calculations from the official series.

Two things stand out. First, the private market is grinding, not surging. Every quarterly change since the start of 2025 has been between +0.5% and +1.4%, and URA says prices rose an average of 0.9% a quarter in the first three quarters of both 2025 and 2026. Second, prices and volumes are pulling apart: prices hit new highs while fewer homes change hands. That usually means sellers are holding firm and buyers are choosier, not that demand is booming. The flash estimate uses partial-quarter data; URA publishes full Q3 figures on 23 October 2026.

What changed in 2026: the policy scorecard

The Government made targeted changes for first-timers, HDB buyers, ECs and old estates, and left the investor-facing measures alone.

DateChangeWho it affects
8 May 2026EC scheme tightened for new sites: 10-year MOP, open to foreigners only after year 15, no Deferred Payment Scheme, 90% first-timer quotaFuture EC buyers
28 Jul 202615-month wait-out removed for private owners buying a non-subsidised resale flat without an HDB loan (they must sell the private home within 6 months)Downgraders, retirees
28 Jul 2026Longer ABSD remission timelines for developers of large en bloc sites (6 to 7 years)Developers, en bloc owners
24 Aug 2026HDB income ceiling raised from S$14,000 to S$16,000 for families (S$8,000 for singles); new-EC ceiling S$18,000BTO and EC applicants
4 Aug and 8 Sep 2026En bloc bill: consent threshold to fall to 70% for developments aged 40–59 years and 65% for 60 years and older; passed by Parliament on 8 Sep but not yet in force; start date not yet announcedOwners of older condos

What did not change: ABSD (20% for a citizen’s second home, 60% for foreigners, unchanged since April 2023), the 55% TDSR and 4% stress-test rate, the 4-year Seller’s Stamp Duty for homes bought from July 2025, and the 75% HDB loan limit. Readers coming from our 2021 outlook should note that almost every number in it has since changed: TDSR was 60%, ABSD for a second home was 12%, and home loans were priced off SIBOR, which no longer exists.

So far the wait-out removal has not moved prices: HDB said in its 30 September release that it had not seen a significant increase in resale prices or volumes.

Supply: the factor that caps prices

The Government has deliberately front-loaded land supply. The 2026 GLS Confirmed List totals 9,320 private units (including ECs), more than 50% above the 10-year average, and the second-half Reserve List can release about 4,455 more if developers ask.

The private pipeline is about 60,600 units including ECs. Only 2,483 units (including 872 EC units) were completed in the first half of 2026, but about 25,900 are due by the end of 2028 and about 34,700 after that. URA counts about 15,810 unsold units with planning approval, and estimates around 32,000 unsold units could be put on sale within two years.

What this means: completions are light now, which has kept the vacancy rate in the 6% range and rents edging up (+0.7% in Q2). From 2027 the completion wave arrives. More finished units compete for tenants and for resale buyers, and that is the main reason we do not expect a sharp rise in prices.

On the HDB side, HDB plans about 19,600 BTO flats in 2026, including about 7,960 in the November exercise. The number of flats reaching their minimum occupation period (MOP) is also rising each year through 2028 (AsiaOne). More flats eligible for resale, plus a higher BTO income ceiling that keeps more families in the BTO queue, is why HDB resale prices have stalled after a 9.7% rise in 2024.

Interest rates: cheap money, with a warning light

The 3-month compounded SORA, the benchmark for most floating home loans, was about 1.23% on 1 October 2026. Packages are priced at SORA plus a spread, or fixed for two to three years, and banks raised them after the US rate hike on 16 September: floating loans now cost about 1.5–1.8% and fixed loans about 2.0–2.2%, as reported by The Business Times (2 October 2026) and CNA (18 September 2026). That is still far below 2023, when SORA itself peaked at about 3.7–3.8%.

Here is what that means for a typical purchase. Say you buy a S$1.5m condo with a 75% loan of S$1.125m over 30 years:

Mortgage rateMonthly instalment
1.75% (mid-range floating today)S$4,019
2.1% (mid-range fixed today)S$4,215
3.5%S$5,052
4.0% (the TDSR stress-test rate)S$5,371

At 4%, the bank needs your monthly debt payments to be within 55% of gross income, so with no other debts you need about S$9,765 a month to qualify. Try your own numbers in our mortgage calculator.

The warning light: on 16 September 2026 the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 3.75–4.00%, saying inflation “remains elevated”. In Singapore, consumer prices rose about 1.8% in the year to Q2 2026, up from about 0.6% a year earlier. MAS steers policy through the exchange rate, not interest rates, so SORA does not follow the Fed one for one. But SORA rose sharply in 2022–23 when US rates rose, and it could do so again.

One reason Singapore prices did not crack in 2022–23 is the stress test. Banks already size loans as if rates were 4%, so buyers were not stretched when rates actually rose. The same rule means today’s low rates have not raised how much people can borrow. More on this in how interest rates affect property prices.

Demand: a strong economy, but upgraders are less flush

The economy is doing better than most people expected: real GDP grew 6.3% year on year in Q1 2026 and 5.9% in Q2. Jobs and incomes, not interest rates, are what keep owners from becoming forced sellers.

The weaker link is the HDB upgrader. HDB resale prices rose about 53% between Q2 2020 and Q3 2026, and that equity paid for many condo purchases. With resale prices now flat, upgraders cannot count on a rising sale price. Big flats still sell well (596 resales at S$1m or more in Q3 2026), but the typical upgrader is no longer getting richer each quarter. In the private market, Q3 demand favoured suburban (OCR) condos and landed homes over prime CCR units.

Propwise’s view for Q4 2026 and 2027

This section is Propwise’s view, based on the data above. It is not a forecast you should bet a mortgage on: forecasters rarely call turning points.

For Q4 2026, we expect private prices to be flat to +1% and HDB resale prices to move within half a percent either way.

Scenario for 2027What has to happenPrivate pricesHDB resale prices
Base case (most likely)SORA stays at 1–2%, growth slows but stays positive, new supply is absorbed slowly+1% to +4%−2% to +1%
UpsideRates stay near today’s level, en bloc rules start and trigger a wave of sales, strong jobs market+5% to +8%+1% to +3%
DownsideGlobal recession or an inflation scare pushes SORA above 3% and unemployment up−5% to −10%−3% to −6%

Why the base case: low rates and a strong economy support prices, but record land supply, the 2027–28 completion wave, unchanged cooling measures and flat HDB prices hold them back. Volumes should stay well below the 2021–22 boom.

The upside case has a ceiling. In July 2018, when private prices had risen 9.1% in a year, the Government responded by raising ABSD and cutting loan limits. A return to that pace would probably bring new measures.

The downside case has history behind it. The URA index fell 24.9% in four quarters in 2008–09 and 11.6% over 15 quarters in 2013–17. Our full list of past falls is in do Singapore property prices always go up?

The risks that would change our view

  1. A rate shock. If inflation forces global rates up, SORA could move back above 3%. A 3.5% rate adds about 26% to the instalment in our example, compared with a 1.75% floating rate.
  2. A global or trade downturn. Job losses create forced sellers. That, more than rates, is what caused past crashes. See why unemployment is the real killer.
  3. The supply wave. About 25,900 private units complete by 2028. If vacancy climbs well above today’s 6.4%, rents and investor returns fall first, then resale prices.
  4. Policy, both ways. New cooling measures if prices run, or a burst of en bloc activity once the new law starts.
  5. A widening HDB–private gap. Rising private prices and falling HDB prices make upgrading harder and shrink the buyer pool for mass-market condos.

What this means for you

  • Buying a home to live in: buy on affordability, not on the outlook. Make sure you can pay the instalment at 4% and that you will stay at least four years, because selling earlier means SSD of up to 16%.
  • Upgrading from HDB: do not assume your flat will rise. Price your sale on recent transactions, and check the ABSD timeline if you buy before you sell.
  • Investing: a citizen pays 20% ABSD on a second home, so the property must rise more than 20% before you break even. Read is property still a good investment? before you commit.
  • Selling: with a large pipeline coming, competitive pricing beats waiting for a better market. For timing questions, see is now a good time to buy?

Bottom line

The Singapore property market enters 2027 in a slow grind: record private prices, falling volumes, soft HDB resale prices, cheap mortgages and a lot of supply on the way. Our base case is small gains for private homes and flat HDB prices. The thing to watch is interest rates. If the Fed’s September hike is the start of a new cycle, today’s cheap loans are the biggest thing that could change.

Sources

property market outlookproperty price indexhdb resale price indexglsinterest rates

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