What Transaction Volumes Tell Us About the Property Market (2026)
How to read Singapore home transaction volumes in 2026: what URA data show on cycles, developer share and resales, and why volume is a poor timing tool.
How we made this. Updated for 2026 with AI-assisted research. Figures are linked to their sources — check them before you act.
Transaction volumes tell you how many buyers and sellers are active, not which way prices will go. In 2007 volume peaked four quarters before prices did. In 2013 the two peaked together. And between 2021 and 2023 volume fell 43% while prices rose 16%. Treat falling volume as a reason to look harder, not as a sell signal.
At a glance
- Private home transactions in H1 2026 were 11,561, down 6.7% on H1 2025, with resales making up 62% of the total in Q2.
- Annual volume fell by about two-thirds twice: from 40,654 in 2007 to 13,642 in 2008, and from 37,873 in 2012 to 12,847 in 2014.
- Developer sales were 71% of all transactions in Q1 2012. In Q2 2026 they were 35%, close to the long-run average of 45%.
- Volumes are best read as a four-quarter total, alongside prices, rents, vacancy and supply.
What the numbers count
The figures here come from the URA transactions series on data.gov.sg. It counts private residential sales in three groups: new sales by developers, resales from one owner to another, and sub-sales, where a buyer resells before the project is completed. HDB flats are a separate market. The figures are based on caveats lodged at the Singapore Land Registry, so they show the level of activity and not every contract signed.
The series has been revised since 2012, so its totals differ from older copies of this article. The price index used below is the URA Private Residential Property Price Index (2009 Q1 = 100).
Seven moments in the data
| Quarter | Transactions | Developer share | Price index | What was happening |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 Q2 | 14,797 | 34.7% | 105.6 | Volume peak before the global financial crisis |
| 2008 Q4 | 1,639 | 25.6% | 116.4 | Volume collapse; the index hit 95.3 by Q2 2009 |
| 2012 Q3 | 10,274 | 57.6% | 148.8 | Developers dominate sales |
| 2013 Q3 | 4,015 | 60.5% | 154.6 | Price peak, after 2013 cooling measures |
| 2022 Q4 | 3,588 | 19.2% | 188.6 | After the December 2021 cooling measures |
| 2024 Q4 | 7,433 | 46.0% | 209.4 | Recovery, with a larger share of new sales |
| 2026 Q2 | 6,148 | 34.8% | 219.4 | Record prices, moderate volume |
Source: URA via data.gov.sg; shares and changes are Propwise calculations.
Volume warns early, but it is a poor timing tool
Look at what prices did around each big change in volume:
- 2007. Quarterly volume peaked in Q2 2007. The index then rose a further 20.2% in the next four quarters, peaked in Q2 2008, and fell 24.9% to Q2 2009. Volume fell 66% in 2008 against 2007.
- 2012 and 2013. Volume stayed high through 2012 (37,873). It fell from 10,274 in Q3 2012 to 4,015 in Q3 2013, a drop of 61%, as the 2013 cooling measures arrived, including the TDSR, introduced on 28 June 2013. The index peaked in that same quarter, 3.9% above Q3 2012, then fell 11.6% to Q2 2017. Here volume gave no early warning.
- 2021 to 2023. Volume peaked in 2021 at 33,557. By 2023 it was 19,044, down 43%. Yet the index rose 16.1% from Q4 2021 to Q4 2023. Higher ABSD from 16 December 2021 and higher interest rates cut turnover, but prices kept climbing.
So volume led the price peak once, matched it once, and in the latest cycle fell without a price fall. Three cycles is too few to build a rule on. What the pattern does say is that volume and price can part ways when policy is doing the work. Our guide to whether prices always go up shows the full price history.
The developer share: new sales versus resales
The old version of this article made much of the mix between developer sales and resales. The mix still matters, for a different reason than we gave in 2012.
In Q1 2012, developers made 6,526 of 9,188 sales, or 71.0%. In Q2 2026 they made 2,141 of 6,148, or 34.8%. Across all quarters since Q4 1999 the share averages about 45%. When developer share is very high, as in 2012 and 2013, it means the resale market is thin relative to launches. Resales are what you will sell into, so a thin resale market means fewer comparable sales to price your unit against.
One 2012 claim does not hold up. We said developer sales were much more volatile than resales. Over 2000 to 2026, the quarterly swings are about the same: a coefficient of variation of 0.51 for developer sales and 0.49 for resales. Both swing with the cycle.
Today the resale side is steady: 3,813 resales in Q2 2026, against 3,647 in Q2 2025. The URA data show that new-sale volume is the part that has been softer, at 4,154 units in H1 2026 against 4,587 in H1 2025, a fall of 9.4%.
HDB volumes move on their own
HDB resales are a different market, and not part of the URA series. The HDB resale registrations on data.gov.sg show 6,184 resales in Q2 2026 against 6,823 in Q2 2025 (down 9.4%), then 5,169 in July and August 2026 against 4,765 a year earlier (up 8.5%). The HDB Q3 2026 flash estimate has prices down 0.2% on the quarter, the third dip in a row. Volumes are mixed while prices dip. That points to a market where buyers and sellers are still meeting, but without upward pressure.
How to read volume in practice
- Use a four-quarter total. Single quarters swing with launch calendars. The Hungry Ghost month, when developers tend not to launch, can cut a month of new sales. The four-quarter total to Q2 2026 was 25,664, 1.9% above the total to Q2 2025.
- Compare with the long-run average. Annual volume averaged 24,101 from 2010 to 2025. The 2025 total of 26,492 was 9.9% above that. Volume below average with prices at records is what 2023 looked like.
- Pair volume with price, rent and vacancy. Rising prices on falling volume suggest few sellers, not strong demand. Falling prices on rising volume suggest buyers are returning after a fall.
- Look at your own segment. Citywide volume says little about one condo. Say a 500-unit project records 10 resales in a year: that is 2% of units. With so few comparable sales, a seller has little evidence to set a price and may need a longer wait or a bigger discount. This is a made-up example to show the logic, not a typical figure.
What volume cannot tell you
Volume does not tell you whether a price is fair, whether your lease is long enough, or whether you can afford the loan at the 4% stress-test rate. For those, see our market outlook, the guide to whether now is a good time to buy, and our note on buying from developers or on the resale market. To test your loan, use the mortgage calculator.
Bottom line
Volume is a useful dashboard light. It shows when the market has gone quiet or crowded, and how much developers matter. It has not been a reliable timing signal in the last three cycles. Read it as a four-quarter total, check the developer share, and make your decision on price, cash flow and holding power. The URA’s full Q3 2026 statistics are due on 23 October 2026.
Sources
- Private Residential Property Transactions in the Whole of Singapore, Quarterly — URA via data.gov.sg (to Q2 2026, checked Oct 2026; Propwise calculations)
- Private Residential Property Price Index (2009-Q1 = 100), Quarterly — URA via data.gov.sg (to Q2 2026, checked Oct 2026)
- Resale flat prices based on registration date from Jan 2017 onwards — HDB via data.gov.sg (monthly counts, checked Oct 2026)
- HDB Resale Price Index table — HDB, Q3 2026 flash estimate
- Measures to cool the property market — MND, 15 Dec 2021
- MAS introduces debt servicing framework for property loans — MAS, 28 Jun 2013
- Measures to promote sustainable conditions in the property market — MAS, 29 Sep 2022
